Trump Leads in Four Key Swing States, But Harris Outperforms Biden
Former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris in four of the five key swing states that President Joe Biden secured in the 2020 election, according to latest polls by Emerson College. These poll results echo national surveys that show Trump with a slight advantage over Harris, although only by a few points under what he would win against Biden.
Key Facts
In Michigan, Trump currently leads Harris by a narrow margin (46% to 45%), with 9% of voters undecided, as per an Emerson College survey of 800 registered voters conducted on July 22-23. This represents a slight drop from Trump’s three-point lead against Biden in a poll conducted on July 15-16 by the same institution.
Harris and Trump are evenly matched at 47% each in Wisconsin, leaving 5% of voters undecided. This data comes from Emerson’s poll of 845 registered voters, demonstrating a major turnover as Trump led Biden by five points in this state.
In Georgia, Trump holds a two-point lead (48% to 46%) over Harris, with 7% of voters undecided, a decrease from his previous six-point lead over Biden.
Conversely, in Arizona, Harris is trailing by five points (49% to 44%) among the surveyed 800 registered voters, while in Pennsylvania, Trump holds a two-point lead (48% to 46%) in the latest survey of 850 voters.
What To Watch For
The Vice-presidential pick from Harris’ team could be instrumental in consolidating her standing in these contentious swing states. Based on Emerson’s poll data, voters showed favor towards contenders who currently represent their states. In Arizona, 42% of Democratic voters lean towards Senator Mark Kelly, and in Pennsylvania, 57% of Democrats favor Governor Josh Shapiro. Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer also garners 36% of voters’ preference despite her stated unwillingness to accept the VP nomination.
Key Background
Biden exited the 2024 presidential race despite his initial intentions to continue, after facing internal party revolt following his performance in the June 27 debate. Shortly after his withdrawal, he endorsed Harris, who then announced her plans to seek the Democratic nomination. As of Monday, the majority of Biden’s delegates expressed their support for Harris, positioning her as the likely Democratic nominee. Harris will now have less than four months to establish her campaign and familiarize the masses with her policy agenda before the general elections on 5th November.
Big Number
Harris trails Trump by 2.1 points nationally as per the Real Clear Politics’ polling average. In contrast, Biden was behind Trump by 3.1 points when he dropped out of the race, representing a small bump for Trump post-debate.
