Harris Slightly Ahead in Tight Michigan Race, Recent Poll Reveals
Harris holds a 3-point edge over Trump in new poll
Michigan – With the November 5 presidential election approaching rapidly, the political atmosphere in the crucial battleground state of Michigan is tense and competitive. A recent poll conducted by USA TODAY/Suffolk University shows that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a small lead over former President Trump, trailing by a margin of 3 points, 48% to 45% respectively.
Details of the Poll
This poll was conducted from September 16-19, polling 500 likely voters in the Great Lake State, right after the first and perhaps the only debate between Harris and Trump. The results could arguably be influenced by the second unsuccessful assassination attempt against the former president on September 15. The poll’s margin of error is placed at 4.4%, indicating the tightness of the race.
Role of Third-Party Candidates
The Michigan ballot will feature six third-party candidates, the most prominent being independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who halted his campaign last month to endorse Trump. Although each of these third-party candidates currently polls under 1%, they could become significant if the margin between Harris and Trump narrows significantly.
David Paleologos, the director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, emphasized the potential of third-party voters, stating, “If the Kamala Harris margin shrinks to a 1-point lead, the entire state hinges on the fringes of the Michigan ballot. The behavior of these voters could make a significant difference.”
Michigan: A Key Battleground State
Michigan, along with the other Rust Belt states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, are often referred to as the “Blue Wall”. These states, in almost every election dating back to 1988, have voted for the same presidential candidate – typically a Democrat. Trump’s victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 was a notable exception. However, current President Biden went on to reclaim these states in 2020, winning Michigan and other battleground states including Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have prioritized these Blue Wall states during campaign stops this summer.
The Gender Gap and Independent Voters
The poll further reveals a significant gender gap among the voters. Harris leads among women, garnering 56% support compared to Trump’s 37%. On the other hand, men prefer Trump over Harris, favoring him by a margin of 54% to 39%. The survey also shows that Trump is narrowly leading the race with independent voters, gaining the support of 42% of them to Harris’s 41%.
Looking Ahead
As the forthcoming election grows ever closer, the spotlight on Michigan intensifies. The results from this key battleground state could dramatically shape the outcome of the presidential race. As demonstrated by the latest poll, the contest in Michigan remains very much in the balance.
